Strategic Doubt: It should inspire resilience, not spell paralysis

—Father Flynn, Doubt 

In John Patrick Shanley’s 2008 film Doubt, certainty and ambiguity collide in a moral thriller set in a Bronx Catholic school in 1964 New York. The story revolves around Sister Aloysius Beauvier, a strict headmistress convinced that Father Flynn, a charismatic parish priest, has engaged in inappropriate conduct with a young African-American student. But the film is not about whether Flynn is guilty or innocent. It is about how people behave when caught between certainty and doubt.

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Sister Aloysius represents moral certainty, acting on instinct while lacking proof. Father Flynn embraces ambiguity, preaching compassion and progressive change while never fully clearing the cloud of suspicion. Caught between them is Sister James, a nun torn between her faith in human goodness and duty to protect the vulnerable. As the film ends, Sister Aloysius confesses that her certainty came at a cost. “I have doubts,” she whispers, breaking down. The audience is left with no resolution, only the unsettling realization that doubt—not certainty—often shapes human decisions.

Cut to 2025, where the world is caught in a geopolitical sequel that we could title ‘Strategic Doubt.’ With Donald Trump back in the White House, speculation has given way to reality. He has already revived his trademark unpredictability—questioning Nato’s value, threatening new tariffs and pulling back on climate and trade commitments. Alliances are fraying, markets are jittery and US rivals like Russia and China are recalibrating their strategies to exploit this instability. The world must now confront a turbocharged ‘America First.’

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Like Sister Aloysius, Trump seems to operate from absolute conviction, seeing the world in black and white—winners or losers, patriots or traitors, allies or freeloaders. He appears to see moral clarity as justification for unilateral action, even if it means breaking long-standing alliances or global norms. In this world view, hesitation is weakness. Whether pulling out of past agreements or shaking up diplomatic traditions, Trump acts as though he alone can guard America’s interests, regardless of the consequences.

Yet, paradoxically, while Trump acts with personal certainty, his actions generate strategic doubt. His disruptive style leaves allies and partners unsure of US reliability. While Trump frames issues in stark terms, the rest of the world is left navigating shades of grey. This is where the tension lies: Is such doubt good or bad? 

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Doubt is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it can force nations to reflect and build resilience. Europe’s push for defence autonomy and India’s balancing act between major powers can be seen as constructive responses to US unpredictability. 

On the other hand, doubt can paralyse decision-making, erode trust and fracture alliances. When nations are unsure whether the US will meet its commitments, they may overreact by going it alone or underreact by waiting for clarity. Like Sister James’s early indecision in Doubt, this paralysis can expose vulnerabilities. Doubt is neither good nor bad—it is what nations choose to do with it that matters.

Like Sister Aloysius acting pre-emptively, Europe is boosting defence and energy independence, even as Russia and China exploit Western uncertainty, with Trump’s transactional style risking deeper global divides and empowering rivals to reshape the global order. India, like Sister James, is torn between competing loyalties. It has much to gain from a stable global order, but is wary of overcommitting to any side. It hopes that goodwill and pragmatism will prevail over polarization, but may soon face hard choices.

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In a pivotal moment, Sister Aloysius appeals to Mrs. Miller, the boy’s mother, to back her campaign against Father Flynn. But Mrs. Miller, aware of her son’s fragile place in the school system, refuses. This moment mirrors the choices facing smaller nations today as they prioritize safeguarding ties with America even if it means tolerating its unpredictability. Not every player has the luxury of moral clarity; many must balance principles with survival.

While global attention focuses on what Trump might do next, the real danger may lie in what the rest of the world fails to do. Inaction born of doubt can paralyse. Nations risk reacting to crises after the damage is done. The lesson of Doubt is not that doubt should be avoided. 

On the contrary, it fosters reflection and humility—qualities that are often missing in populist leadership. But unresolved doubt can breed fear and cynicism. The world must not wait for Trump to provide clarity, but acquire strategic resilience. We must strengthen multilateral institutions, diversify alliances and prepare for a world where US leadership cannot be assumed. True leadership is not about eliminating uncertainty, but about acting wisely. The world can’t afford to stand still, caught in Trump’s shadow. It must move forward, balancing risk with resolve.

These are the author’s personal views.

The author is professor, and finance and economics and executive director, Centre for Family Business & Entrepreneurship at Bhavan’s SPJIMR.